MLB MVP race 2023: Evaluating early front-runners for AL, NL MVP (2023)

Who will win MLB MVP in 2023? New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt took home the honors last year. Now, we look ahead to the 2023 season with an outlook analyzing the National League and American League candidates for the MLB MVP race.

Major League Baseball is the only American professional sport that wards two MVP awards, one to each conference. It allows two players to take home a prestigious honor, joining some of thebest players in MLB historywith the coveted award on their trophy case.

Bookmark this page for updates on the MLB MVP race throughout the season, including the latest odds and analysis.

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Let’s evaluate the field of 2023 MLB MVP candidates through the first month of the season. All MLB stats for the AL and NL MVP candidates are as of May 24.

NL MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr remains early front-runner

1. Ronald Acuña Jr, Atlanta Braves – Ronald Acuña Jr is the clear NL MVP front-runner through the first 50 games of the season. Even while playing some of the worst defense in all of baseball, Acuna’s run production and offensive output aren’t matched by anyone in the National League. As long as Acuña stays healthy and Atlanta is atop the NL East, he’ll be the heavy favorite to take home the honors.
2. Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves – Not only does Atlanta Braves catcher Sean Murphy lead all of his peers in wRC+, he also ranks second in Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Catcher Framing Runs (4). On pace to win the Gold Glove Award and Silver Slugger, Murphy is having the best season by a catcher since Buster Posey’s NL MVP year.
3. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers – Freddie Freeman is on a tear in May, slashing .372/.429/.709 with a 1.138 OPS and 22 RBI. During that stretch, Los Angeles is 15-6 and reclaimed the top spot in the National League. Based on Freeman’s track record, he’ll be in the MVP race through September.
4. Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks – The Arizona Diamondbacks keep surging up the MLB standings and Luis Perdomo has played a huge part in that. However, he’s slashing .229/.362/.396with a .758 OPS in May. While Arizona holds an 11-5 record during that span, Perdomo is losing his standing on our NL MVP ballot and his defense isn’t good enough to sustain it if the regression at the plate continues.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals – The St. Louis Cardinals are beginning to regain their footing, with Paul Goldschmidt (.940 OPS in May) playing a massive part in that. He was playing at an MVP-caliber level even when St. Louis sat in the cellar of the NL, so the team-wide turnaround could push him right up with Freeman before long.

AL MVP: Marcus Semien on top, Aaron Judge surging

1. Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers – Marcus Semien takes over as the early front-runner for AL MVP with June fast approaching. The Texas Rangers are one of the best teams in baseball this year, with Semien often carrying this lineup. He slashed .345/.417/.536 through the first three weeks of May, is playing stellar defense and there’s even more help around him now with Corey Seager healthy.
2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels – It’s been a rough month for Shohei Ohtani on the mound, with six home runs allowed and a 4.68 ERA in four starts. He’s also not performing at his peak in the batter’s box, with a 133 wRC+ that ranks 25th in the American League this month.
3. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees – The New York Yankees are 10-3 since Aaron Judge rejoined the lineup, snapping a slump that led to debate over being sellers at the trade deadline. Judge – .367/.484/.918 with a 1.402 OPS in May – is on a hot streak that’s even better than what he delivered in his record-breaking 2022 season. A healthy Judge can win a second consecutive AL MVP award without question.
4. Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays – As the Tampa Bay Rays cool off, so does Wander Franco. After posting a .909 OPS with a 146 wRC+ and a .292 batting average in April, Franco is now slashing .244/.300/.378 with a 92 wRC+ and .678 OPS in May. Unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay is 12-9 over that span.
5. Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays – After slashing .190/.277/.238 with a 34 percent strikeout rate and 49 wRC+ in the first two weeks of May, Chapman posted a 175 wRC+ in the last four games. It keeps him in the running, especially after the scorching-hot April.

Who is leading the MLB MVP race?

Ronald Acuña Jr is first in the MLB MVP race right now. Through the first 50 games of the season, Acuña leads the league in fWAR (2.6) and he leads the National League in ESPN WAR (2.9) and bWAR (2.9).

Who is favored to win AL MVP?

Shohei Ohtani (-125) is currently favored to win AL MVP in 2023, per BetMGM. Right behind Ohtani in the AL MVP odds is Aaron Judge (+800) followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr (+1200) and Mike Trout (+1500). Our AL MVP pick, Marcus Semien, currently has +4500 odds.

MLB MVP odds 2023:Who will win Most Valuable Player?

Unsurprisingly, the MLB MVP race this year will feature a lot of familiar names including perennial All-Star selections, All-MLB First Team nominees and former MVP winners. While there is a heavy favorite in the American League, the National League is more of a wide-open race with World Series contenders boasting the early front-runners.

The latest 2023 MLB MVP odds are via BetMGM.

NL MVP odds 2023: Evaluating the National League MVP candidates

• Juan Soto, San Diego Padres – An NL MVP favorite last year, Juan Soto didn’t quite meet expectations. However, he still boasted a league-high 20.3% walk rate with 27 home runs, a 145 wRC+ and a .401 OBP. Parked in the heart of one of the best lineups in MLB, Soto is an easy bet for 30-plus homers and a return to a .280 batting average and 160 wRC+ can win him MVP on a playoff team.
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers – Mookie Betts hasn’t posted a batting average over a full season since 2019, which slightly diminishes his chances of taking home MVP. However, he is a lock for 100-plus runs scored, 90-plus RBIs and could hit 30 homers with a 140 wRC+ and may finish as a Gold Glove Award finalist. If he’s the best player on the Los Angeles Dodgers this season, that might be good enough to take home the honor.
• Fernando Tatīs Jr., San Diego Padres – Fernando Tatis Jr. is eligible to return from suspension on April 20, so his stats should keep him in line with other NL MVP candidates. He last hit 42 home runs with a 157 wRC+ and 25 steals in 2021, which if replicated might earn him MVP this upcoming season. However, the PED suspension might swing enough voters to give the honor to an equally-deserving player.
• Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals – We haven’t seen a player win consecutive MLB MVP awards since Miguel Cabrera (2012-’13). Considering Paul Goldschmidt is now 35 years old, history suggests the odds of him repeating are extremely low. Projected for a regression in OPS and home runs, Goldschmidt likely won’t be an MVP finalist.
• Ronald Acuña Jr, Atlanta Braves – Ronald Acuña Jr. battled some issues in his first season back from a torn ACL, with a lack of power output becoming the biggest problem. A full offseason to get healthy and make adjustments should allow him to return to the caliber of player who can deliver a 30-30 season. Acuña Jr. is one of the most talented players in MLB and if he returns to his peak with the Atlanta Braves winning the division, he deserves MVP.

AL MVP odds 2023: Best American League MVP candidates

• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels – It took a season for the ages and the Los Angeles Angels finishing under .500 for Shohei Ohtani to not win AL MVP in 2022. While predicting the Angels to make the playoffs is risky, it’s safe to assume there won’t be another Judge-like season. If that’s the case, the player who hits 35-plus home runs with a 150 wRC+ and strikes out 200 batters with a sub-3.0 ERA is the Most Valuable Player in baseball.
• Aaron Judge, New York Yankees – Aaron Judge had a season for the ages and his return to the New York Yankees is the best move for both his career and stats. However, Judge just delivered one of the best single-season performances in MLB history and his career numbers prior to 2022 (..276/.386/.554, 6.4% HR rate) suggest regression is coming for the 31-year-old. Based on that and the lack of back-to-back MLB MVP winners in recent years, it’s best to bet on someone else.
• Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels – Mike Trout could become just the second player in MLB history to win four MVP awards. However, the 31-year-old is stuck on a fringe playoff team and he hasn’t played in 120-plus games since 2019. If you could guarantee Trout plays 120-plus games this year and the Angels are a Wild Card team, Trout would be our runner-up.
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners – The reigning AL Rookie of the Year, Julio Rodriguez looked like a perennial MLB MVP candidate in his first season with the Seattle Mariners. While plate discipline will always be a concern, he’s a 30-30 threat right now who can combine for 200 runs produced. Seattle’s lineup is improved and the budding star should be among the sleepers to win AL MVP in 2023.
• Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros – Before suffering a hand injury that impacted him in the second half; of the season, Yordan Alvarez slashed .306/.405/.653 with a 196 wRC+ and 26 home runs, neck-and-neck with Judge in our AL MVP race. However, the 2022 season showed that even if Alvarez is healthy for a full season, voters hold his status as a designated hitter against him and that has to be remembered when looking at the field this year.

MLB MVP 2022 results

Who is the AL MVP?

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won AL MVP in 2022, becoming the first Yankees’ player since Alex Rodriguez (2007) to win MVP honors.

Here’s a breakdown on how I would’ve voted in the MLB MVP races 2022, starting with AL MVP followed by NL MVP.

AL MVP race

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is the AL MVP. While Shohei Ohtani put up a phenomenal fight this season, Judge delivered a caliber of historical greatness that will rightfully go down as one of the best seasons in MLB history.

Related: Aaron Judge home run tracker

Use whatever stats you want. Judge is the first player in MLB history with 60-plus home runs, 90-plus walks and 15-plus steals in a season. He entered Saturday with the ninth-highest FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (10.7) since 1950.

There is also so much more to consider from the star who is on the verge of becoming just the fifth Triple Crown winner in the last 75 years. Judge hit 60 home runs in a season when no other player sniffed 50. All of this in a contract year, betting on himself and delivering in historic fashion. If all of that isn’t enough, a 266 wRC+ in the second half (no other player above 185), 20.3% walk rate and 27 home runs in the second half solidify Judge as MLB MVP.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

Shohei Ohtani wins AL MVP in any other season. The two-way phenom delivered a season like we’ve never seen before. He is the first player since 1900 to face 600 batters and have 600-plus plate appearances (Sarah Langs). He struck out 200-plus batters this season and was part of the 30-homer club, something no other player in MLB history has ever come close to approaching.

Incredibly, Ohtani saved his best stuff for the second half. Entering September 24, Ohtani boasted a .291/.374/.612 slash line with 15 home runs and a 170 wRC+ since the All-Star Break. On the mound, Ohtani sports a 2.59 ERA with a 10.91 K/9, 29.6% strikeout rate and .229 batting average allowed in the second half.

AL MVP ballots should be relatively close, Judge shouldn’t be a unanimous selection. Ohtani’s exceptional play both on the mound and in the batter’s box makes him the best player in MLB. Ultimately, it just isn’t enough to win a second consecutive AL MVP award in a year like this.

Related: MLB scores

NL MVP race: Nolan Arenado vs Paul Goldschmidt

Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

The NL MVP vote makes for a great debate, with voters asked to weigh if they prefer defense or offense more. There is no wrong choice, it’s a matter of preference, but the choice here is awarding NL MVP to Nolan Arenado.

Look at what the 31-year-old accomplished this season. He is ranks third in Fielding Bibles’ Defensive Runs Saved (18) among players with 1,000-plus innings played. In addition, Arenado boasts the sixth-highest Outs Above Average (14), all while playing one of the most important defensive positions in baseball.

All of that is incredibly valuable for a team that is so dependent on its pitching and defense. Arenado makes life so much easier for his teammate on the mound, saving runs and routinely creating outs or erasing extra-base hits.

On top of this, Arenado has the third-highest wRC+ (151), the fourth-best slugging percentage (.535) and is on pace for a 30-homer and 100-RBI season. When you combine all of that with his fielding, Arenado is our NL MVP.

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

It won’t be surprising if Paul Goldschmidt wins NL MVP. Entering the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman leads the National League in slugging (.591), fWAR (7.1), wRC+ (181) and ranks second in RBI (112) and isolated power (.271)

Here’s the argument against Goldschmidt. He is slashing .235/.342/.412 in September with a 119 wRC+ and seven RBIs in his last 79 plate appearances. All of this has come at a time when the Cardinals’ lineup desperately needs a spark.

Defensively, he ranks 10th among first basemen (500-plus innings) in Defensive Runs Saved (two) and is 33rd in Outs Above Average (-7). That’s enough to give Arenado the nod over Goldschmidt.

Check below for our evaluation of the MLB MVP predictions and race heading into the season.

MLB MVP history and FAQ

Here’s everything you need to know about the MLB MVP awards, including its history and when it is announced by Major League Baseball.

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Why does baseball have 2 MVPs?

There are two MLB MVP awards because Major League Baseball provides awards for both the American League and the National League. Just like with MVP, there are AL & NL honors for the Cy Young Award, Comeback Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Reliever of the Year.

MLB MVP winners: Who is the 2022 MLB MVP?

(Video) MLB's Top 50 Players for 2023, ranked | The Foolish 50

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won MLB MVP honors in 2022. Goldschmidt beat teammate Nolan Arenado, the runner-up for NL MVP, while Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished as the AL MVP runner-up.

• 2022 – AL MVP – Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
• 2022 – NL MVP – Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
• 2021 – AL MVP – Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
• 2021 – NL MVP – Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
• 2020 – AL MVP – José Abreu, Chicago White Sox
• 2020 – NL MVP – Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
• 2019 – AL MVP – Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
• 2019 – NL MVP – Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 2018 – AL MVP – Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
• 2018 – NL MVP – Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
• 2017 – AL MVP – Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
• 2017 – NL MVP – Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins

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Who has the most MVPs in MLB?

Barry Bonds won seven MLB MVP awards during his career. The San Francisco Giants icon holds the MLB record for most MVPs, winning them in 1990, ’92, ’92 and 2001-’04.

Who is the youngest MLB MVP winner?

Johnny Bench is the youngest player to win MLB MVP. The former Cincinnati Reds catcher won MVP in 1970 at the age of 22 years and 26 days old, just surpassing Vida Blue (22 years, 3 months and 30 days in 1971). During that 1970 season, Bench hit 45 home runs with 148 RBIs a .293 batting average and a .932 OPS.

Who votes for MLB MVP?

The Baseball Writers Association of America votes for MLB MVP. There are 60 total voters for MVP honors, with 30 voting for the National League MVP and another 30 voting for the American League MVP.

Who has 3 MLB MVPs?

There have been 11 players in baseball history to win three MVPs. Most recently, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout became the latest player to win his third AL MVP. Before that, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez became the first players to do it since Barry Bonds.

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MLB players with three MVPs

• Barry Bonds – 7 – 1990, ’92, ’92, 2001-’04
• Mike Trout – 3 – 2014, ’16, ’19
• Alex Rodriguez – 3 – 2003, ’05, ’07
• Albert Pujols – 3 – 2005, ’08, ’09
• Mike Schmidt – 3 – 1980, ’81, ’86
• Yogi Berra – 3 – 1951, ’54, ’55
• Stan Musial – 3 – 1943, ’46, ’48
• Mickey Mantle – 3 – 1956, ’57, ’62
• Roy Campanella – 3 – 1951, ’53, ’55
• Joe Dimaggio – 3 – 1939, ’41, ’47
• Jimmie Foxx – 1932, ’33, ’38