As the Yankees visit Seattle for a series that began with 10-4 win last night, let’s begin projecting which New York players will be making the same trip in mid-July.
T-Mobile Park will host this year’s All-Star Game, with voting beginning tomorrow. The Yankees and Mets are now more than one-third of the way through a long season, and with Memorial Day — a traditional mile marker for the season — come and gone, the sample size is no longer that small.
After two months of baseball, let’s use FanGraphs’ go-to measurement of value, the website’s Wins Above Replacement, to see who had positioned themselves the strongest, entering play Monday, for the Midsummer Classic.
American League starters, as judged by FanGraphs WAR:
C: Jonah Heim, Rangers
1B: Yandy Diaz, Rays
2B: Marcus Semien, Rangers
3B: Matt Chapman, Blue Jays
SS: Wander Franco, Rays
OF: Aaron Judge, Yankees
OF: Randy Arozarena, Rays
OF: Josh Lowe, Rays
DH: Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Notes on the periphery:
• FanGraphs favors Heim, but he and Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman have been the two best catchers in the league.
• FanGraphs favors Franco, but he and Toronto’s Bo Bichette have been the two best shortstops in the league.
• There is a jumbled outfield picture in the AL that includes Mike Trout, Kevin Kiermaier, Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins (who strained his groin yesterday) and Riley Green all on the outside fighting for a spot. The guess here is if Trout is a contender, Trout will make it to Seattle.
• We’re slotting in Alvarez, who also plays the outfield, at DH — where Shohei Ohtani also could get the nod.
• The Rays have played like an All-Star team. Infielders Taylor Walls and Isaac Paredes and DH Harold Ramírez have strong arguments, too.
Which other Yankees could sneak in?
• Gleyber Torres is having a strong season, but not in the same stratosphere as Semien (.854 OPS).
• Anthony Rizzo (.880 OPS) might have been the Yankees’ most important player thus far, but Diaz’s numbers (1.018 OPS with 12 homers) are superior. Ryan Noda, the A’s first baseman, has hit well for a team that likely will have to dig for representation at the game, so he lurks as extra competition for Rizzo.
National League starters, as judged by FanGraphs WAR:
C: Sean Murphy, Braves
1B: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
2B: Thairo Estrada, Giants
3B: Jeimer Candelario, Nationals
SS: Dansby Swanson, Cubs
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves
OF: Brandon Nimmo, Mets
OF: Juan Soto, Padres
DH: Nolan Gorman, Cardinals
Notes on the periphery:
• With Murphy, Will Smith and Elias Diaz, it has been a strong season for National League catchers. It is too early for Francisco Alvarez to crack the list, but the Mets rookie entered Monday tied with Diaz for third-best fWAR among NL catchers.
• Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson lead a robust class of National League first basemen.
• Estrada, the former Yankee, is edging out the Cardinals’ Gorman, who splits time between DH and second base. It will be curious to see how the Marlins’ Luis Arraez, who is batting .376, performs in the voting. He relentlessly finds hits but has just one home run to show for it.
• Nimmo (.843 OPS) has been excellent atop the Mets’ lineup and has never been an All-Star. Additional competition includes the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts, the Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll and the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger.
Which other Mets could sneak in?
• Francisco Lindor has taken a step back but still has been excellent defensively and shown plenty of pop. Swanson is the front-runner at shortstop, but Lindor almost must contend with Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo and San Diego’s Xander Bogaerts at shortstop.
• Alonso, Freeman, Goldschmidt and Olson might be fighting for a couple All-Star spots for a very long time.
• Jeff McNeil is merely having a good season and not a great one. Estrada, Gorman, Arraez and perhaps the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner and the Reds’ Jonathan India have been better.
Pitching:
In the past few years, players have voted for five starting pitchers and three relievers. The MLB office has appointed the four remaining pitchers.
AL starting pitcher leaders, as judged by FanGraphs WAR:
1. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays (3.03 ERA with 89 strikeouts in 68 ⅓ innings)
2. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (2.42 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 74 ⅓ innings)
3. Sonny Gray, Twins (1.94 ERA in 60 ⅓ innings)4. Joe Ryan, Twins (7-1, 2.21 ERA)
5. Framber Valdez, Astros (2.38 ERA in 72 innings)
Which Yankees could sneak in?
The crowded field includes Gerrit Cole (2.93 ERA in 73 ⅔ innings), who was stronger in April than May. Among the many in the running are Luis Castillo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hunter Brown, Bryce Miller and Ohtani.
AL relievers:
1. Yennier Cano, Orioles (0.98 ERA, 14 hits allowed in 27 ⅔ innings)
2. Carlos Estevez, Angels (1.50 ERA, 13 saves)3. Felix Bautista, Orioles (1.38 ERA, 53 strikeouts in 26 innings)
Which Yankees could sneak in?
Ian Hamilton’s groin injury dented his candidacy. The Yankees’ best bet is Michael King (1.88 ERA in 28 ⅔ innings), who is non-traditional in usage. King throws a few innings every few days. Additional competition includes Seattle’s Trevor Gott, Detroit’s Alex Lange and former Yankee and current Royal Aroldis Chapman.
NL starting pitcher leaders entering Monday, according to FanGraphs:
1. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks (2.97 ERA in 66 ⅔ innings)
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (3.60 ERA, 76 strikeouts in 65 innings)
3. Spencer Strider, Braves (2.97 ERA, 106 strikeouts in 63 ⅔ innings)
4. Justin Steele, Cubs (2.77 ERA, 1.108 WHIP)
5. Mitch Keller, Pirates (6-1, 3.01 ERA in 68 ⅔ innings)
Also in the hunt are Clayton Kershaw, Logan Webb, Merrill Kelly and Bryce Elder. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander do not have the workloads to vie for any spots.
NL relievers:
1. Alexis Diaz, Reds (17.42 K/9, 1.74 ERA)
2. David Bednar, Pirates (0.75 WHIP, 1.35 ERA)
3. Josh Hader, Padres (.096 batting average against, 0.82 ERA)
Which Mets could sneak in?
David Robertson, whose last and only All-Star Game came in 2011, is on the periphery, but so are a couple dozen relievers.
Today’s back page(s)
It was a busy night for The Post’s sports production team, as they worked through three different back pages…
First…
Then…
And finally…
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⚾Aaron Judge does it all to carry Yankees past Mariners as win streak grows
🏀LEWIS: Celtics only have themselves to blame for Game 7 flop despite advantages
⚾PUMA: Mets can look to NL East rivals for hope of overcoming sluggish start
🏈Guaranteed money remains likely sticking point between Giants, Saquon Barkley
🏒Oliver Wahlstrom’s Islanders role unclear heading into summer
History doesn’t always repeat itself
In the final moments of the TNT broadcast, you could hear the squeaking sneakers on the court. As play finally stopped, you could hear Miami players clapping their hands and a few scattered boos from the fans.
In front of a packed TD Garden, those sounds were audible because all else was silent. Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals was going to be crushing for one side, and the Heat ensured it was the home team that was leveled into silence.
The Heat escaped Boston with a 103-84 victory that clinched a spot in the NBA Finals and averted a historic disaster. No NBA team has ever successfully come back from down 3-0 in a series, a fact that remains true even after the Celtics forced a Game 7 against all odds.
The Celtics got off the mat and rolled past the Heat in Games 4 and 5. It was Derrick White who flipped in the game-winner in Game 6, a bit of magic that had Boston recalling 2004, the Bloody Sock and improbable comebacks.
The 2004 Red Sox grabbed momentum while down 3-0 in the ALCS, dispatched of the Yankees and broke a curse along the way to the World Series title. The 2023 Celtics gave Boston a taste of the same high before it went sour.
Jayson Tatum turned his ankle on the very first possession of the game, which did not get much better for Boston. The Heat were up seven after one quarter and 11 at the half, led by as many as 23 and never looked back. Jimmy Butler finished with 28 points and the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, even if Caleb Martin (26 points on 16 shots) had a case for the hardware.
The Heat, who blew a 3-0 lead and had to sweat out an extra week of games, can exhale ahead of a showdown with the Nuggets.
The Celtics, who roared back from a deficit that no one thought to be surmountable, have an entire offseason to wrestle with their fate: They were good enough to get their hopes up, but not good enough to avoid this heartbreak.
Once a Yankee, not always a Yankee
Monday was a busy day for a couple notable former Yankees.
Gary Sanchez, after a three-game stint with the Mets, has latched on with the Padres. Sanchez narrowly missed a reunion series in The Bronx, where the Padres played this weekend, but there is a path toward playing time in San Diego. Luis Campusano required thumb surgery in April that will keep him sidelined a few more months, and Austin Nola (.434 OPS) and rookie Brett Sullivan (.482 OPS in 21 games) have been dreadful.
Luke Voit hopes he, too, will get another chance. The Brewers DFA’d the ex-Yankees slugger after 22 ineffective games in which he hit .221 without a home run.
Voit was once an MVP candidate with the Yankees and clobbered 22 home runs in 56 games of the shortened 2020 season. But he has never again approached that level of play and was dealt to the Padres in March 2022.
Several teams later, the Brewers took a flier on Voit, who had not played since May 13 because of a neck issue that forced him to the injured list.